National Changhua University of Education Institutional Repository : Item 987654321/14045
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题名: Statistical Tests for Pre-earthquake Ionospheric Anomaly
作者: Chen, Yuh-Ing;Liu, Jann-Yenq;Tsai, Yi-Ben;Chen, Chun-Shu
贡献者: 統計資訊研究所
关键词: Ionospheric precursor;Pre-earthquake anomaly;Statistical test
日期: 2004-09
上传时间: 2012-09-10T04:38:32Z
出版者: TAO
摘要: The anomalous depression of the maximum plasma frequency in the ionosphere (foF2) appears significantly within 1-5 days before the M ≥5.0 earthquakes in the Taiwan area during 1994 - 1999 (Liu et al. 2003). In this paper, we propose two statistical tests against the foF2 anomaly as a candidate for a precursor of earthquakes based on criteria including the success rate, alarm rate, probability gain, and R score. One statistical test is conducted to investigate the significance of the observed foF2 anomalies related to the recorded M ≥5.0 earthquakes in the Taiwan area during 1994-1999. The other statistical test is designed to compare the foF2 anomalybased method with competitive alternatives for predicting the earthquakes under study. The involved alternatives are a naive prediction based on a coin-tossing experiment and a simple prediction method constructed from the current M ≥5.0 earthquakes catalog during 1994 - 1999. The simulation results indicate that, contrast to possible foF2 anomalies, the observed foF2 anomalies are significantly earthquake-related. Moreover, comparing with the alternative predictions under study, the foF2 anomaly remains valid for temporal alarming of the M ≥5.0 earthquakes in the Taiwan area during 1994 - 1999.
關聯: Terrestrial Atomospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 15(3): 385-396
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