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請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件:
http://ir.ncue.edu.tw/ir/handle/987654321/14050
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| 題名: | A Joint Modeling Approach for Spatial Earthquake Risk Variations |
| 作者: | Chen, Chun-Shu;Yang, Hong-Ding |
| 貢獻者: | 統計資訊研究所 |
| 關鍵詞: | Conditional autoregressive model;Hierarchical Bayesian model;Markov chain Monte Carlo;Metropolis-Hastings algorithm |
| 日期: | 2011-08
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| 上傳時間: | 2012-09-10T04:39:05Z
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| 出版者: | Taylor&Francis |
| 摘要: | Modeling spatial patterns and processes to assess the spatial variations of data over a study region is an important issue in many fields. In this paper, we focus on investigating the spatial variations of earthquake risks after a main shock. Although earthquake risks have been extensively studied in the literatures, to our knowledge, there does not exist a suitable spatial model for assessing the problem. Therefore, we propose a joint modeling approach based on spatial hierarchical Bayesian models and spatial conditional autoregressive models to describe the spatial variations in earthquake risks over the study region during two periods. A family of stochastic algorithms based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique is then performed for posterior computations. The probabilistic issue for the changes of earthquake risks after a main shock is also discussed. Finally, the proposed method is applied to the earthquake records for Taiwan before and after the Chi-Chi earthquake. |
| 關聯: | Journal of Applied Statistics, 38(8): 1733-1741 |
| 顯示於類別: | [統計資訊研究所] 期刊論文
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