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题名: Spatial Risk Assessment of Typhoon Cumulated Rainfall: A Case Study in Taipei Area
作者: Lee, Yun-Huan;Yang, Hong-Ding;Chen, Chun-Shu
贡献者: 統計資訊研究所
关键词: Conditional autoregressive model;Cumulated rainfall;Hierarchical Bayesian model;Markov chain Monte Carlo;Metropolis-Hastings algorithm;Spatial risk assessment
日期: 2012
上传时间: 2012-09-10T04:39:24Z
出版者: SpringLink
摘要: Typhoon is one of the most destructive disasters
in Taiwan, which usually causes many floods and
mudslides and prevents the electrical and water supply.
Prior to its arrival, how to accurately forecast the path and
rainfall of typhoon are important issues. In the past, a
regression-based model was the most applied statistical
method to evaluate the associated problems. However, it
generally ignored the spatial dependence in the data,
resulting in less accurate estimation and prediction, and the
importance of particular explanatory variables may not be
apparent. Therefore, in this paper we focus on assessing the
spatial risk variations regarding the typhoon cumulated
rainfall at Taipei with respect to typhoon locations by using
the spatial hierarchical Bayesian model combined with the
spatial conditional autoregressive model, where the model
parameters are estimated by designing a family of stochastic
algorithms based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo
technique. The proposed method is applied to a real data
set of Taiwan for illustration. Also, some important
explanatory variables regarding the typhoon cumulated
rainfall at Taipei are indicated as well.
關聯: Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 26(4): 509-517
显示于类别:[統計資訊研究所] 期刊論文

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