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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ir.ncue.edu.tw/ir/handle/987654321/17335

Title: 台灣人口分佈變化之模式分析---以擴充方法與網路地理資訊系統為工具
Modeling the Distribution and Shift of the Population in Taiwan---A Expansion by Trend Surface and a Visualization by Geographic Information System
Authors: 何猷賓
Contributors: 地理學系
Keywords: 人口分析;擴充方法;空間分析;計量模式分析
Population analysis;Expansion method;Spatial analysis;Geographical information system (GIS);Geographical education;Quantitative analysis
Date: 1999
Issue Date: 2013-08-28T09:05:44Z
Publisher: 行政院國家科學委員會
Abstract: 隨著科學的發展,學科分化及專業化之現象普遍出現在各學科中。在學科分化過程中,大量數學模式(Model)被用來分析研究主題,而得到某些法則及定理(laws and rules)。雖然這些簡括化之系統研究,具有解釋及預測世界之能力,但是只有少數幾個變數可以被考慮。如此一來,其概括化之發展與複雜之現實社會似乎越行越遠,而背離了科學需要以整合方式處理複雜問題之需求。由於傳統地理學常忽略法則及理論之建立,因此常給人不夠精確嚴謹之印象。在1960 年代之計量革命出現後,許多計量方法被大量地引進地理學之研究。後期的擴充方法具有在過於簡化的模式中加入,各學門重視之變數,達到科技整合之目的。在國外其已廣泛地被應用在各種資料的分析上。有鑑於國內之文獻仍無這一分面之研究,因此本研究致力於將這個方法結合網路地理資訊系統,應用在台灣人口變遷分析上,希望藉此能對國內計量化之研究分析及人口現象之瞭解提供另一面向的資料。本研究已收集、處理、分析歷年各縣市男女人口資料,並以趨勢面分析結合擴充方法將之模式化,使最終模式具有時間及空間向度之多項式方程式,以表示台灣人口在時空上的變化情形。最後將原始資料及模式預測資料,一併以網路地理資訊系統之方式,放在網路上以供中等學校地理資訊系統教學及鄉土教學之輔助資料。
As science advancing, specialization occurs in almost all disciplines. In order to make studies more systematic, many mathematics analyses were used to generalize study objects to find out some laws or rules. This kind of approach has a potential to understand the world and predict the future in a sense. However, only limited variables can be considered, so that they tend to increasingly divorce from real world problems. Therefore, many criticisms from both the public and the social science disciplines themselves have been emerging. Specialization is important for the advancement of the frontiers of science, but it also runs counter to the demand for science to deal with problems of real complexity in an integrated way. This research combines both the trend surface analysis and the expansion method to deal with the dilemma on the topic of population shift in Taiwan. At last, the results of this research have been implemented in a network geographic information system to serve the teaching of GIS in high schools.
Relation: 國科會計畫, 計畫編號: NSC88-2418-H018-001; 研究期間: 8708-8807
Appears in Collections:[地理學系] 國科會計畫

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