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Title: 演變中的台海形勢與美國的「維持現狀」政策
The Evolving Situation in the Taiwan Strait and the Us 'Status Quo Policy'
Authors: 李毓峰
Contributors: 公共事務與公民教育學系
Keywords: 維持現狀;一個中國;中國政策;美對台政策;兩岸關係
Status quo;One China;The US China policy;The US Taiwan policy;China-Taiwan relations
Date: 2008-08
Issue Date: 2014-01-15T04:14:51Z
Publisher: 行政院國家科學委員會
Abstract: 將近三十年來美國巧妙地操控雙重平衡與雙重嚇阻之「台海維持現狀」政策,在兩岸政治與軍事層面維持平衡,但同時防範和嚇阻兩岸任何一方單方面地改變現狀,建構出特殊的美中台三邊安全架構。有些觀察家將美國的現狀管理目標簡單歸納為「不武、不獨、不統、不戰」,不武是針對北京,不獨是指向臺北,不統是刻意保持台灣主權地位模糊卻事實獨立的狀態,不戰是避免美中因台灣問題發生戰爭。然而在不斷演變中的台海形勢之下,美國的「台海維持現狀」政策勢必遭到衝擊與挑戰,特別是中國的快速崛起使得兩岸之間不但經濟實力差距愈加擴大,台海的軍事平衡亦逐漸朝向中國傾斜,因而提高了北京使用武力解決台灣問題的能力與誘因。此外,台灣的民主深化發展造成了政治與社會的結構性轉變,台灣人民要求政治自主性和追求正常主權國家地位的聲音,已經成為具體而強勁的力量。這股政治力量對於台海的形勢演變,也帶來了明顯的衝擊。本研究的目的在探討台海形勢的演變趨向對美國維持現狀政策產生何種衝擊與影響,並試圖解答以下主要問題:在中國和台灣現行政治、經濟、社會和軍事的形勢發展下,美國執行其維持現狀政策的困難度將日益增加,美國能否長期維持台海現狀的穩定和抑制台海危機的爆發?就美中台三邊關係的未來而言,美國是否應調整或改變其「台海維持現狀」政策?若須改變,有哪些可能的新政策選項?
For almost thirty years Washington has implemented separate dual strategies in order to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait while balancing out the rival political and military forces of each side. In general, the US seeks to maintain an optimal balance between deterrence and reassurance, aimed at both China and Taiwan: Toward China: to deter any Chinese miscalculation leading to the use of force while reassuring Beijing that the US will not use its superior power to encourage Taiwan independence. Toward Taiwan: to reassure Taipei that that U.S. will not permit the forcible or coerced resolution of the issue against Taiwan’s will while deterring Taiwan from undertaking unilateral actions that move Beijing further toward the use of force. In recent years, the obvious dangers presented by the Taiwan Strait situation derive from two underlying factors: First, the deepening of democracy and the evolution of attitudes in Taiwan(Taiwan politics and society are transitioning from the “One China” perspective of the former Chinese Nationalist government toward variations of a de facto “One China, One Taiwan”perspective) ; second, the rising strength of the PRC and it is developing military, economic, and political capabilities to deter or prevent Taiwan independence. Some questions must be asked: given existing political, economic, social, and military trends evident within Taiwan and Mainland China, will a US policy intended merely to maintain a changing status quo and to deter the worst case scenario (military conflict) facilitate long-term stability in the Taiwan Strait? Does the US need to adjust or even abandon the “status quo policy”across the Taiwan Strait? We try to find the answers in this study.
Relation: 國科會計畫, 計畫編號: NSC97-2410-H018-024; 研究期間: 9708-9807
Appears in Collections:[公共事務與公民教育學系] 國科會計畫

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